Waiting on South Carolina
As I conveyed in my last post on the subject, I’m pretty exasperated at this point with the progress and the dynamics of the Republican presidential primary contest. If the whole thing had been set up by an omnipotent hand to structurally favor Mitt Romney’s success (despite his lack of an large enthusiastic base) it could hardly have been done any better. Endless blathering from my own vantage point is not going to change anything. But, as said before, nothing can alter the course events better than, well, events. It’s in the hands of the voters of South Carolina to determine whether a true contest continues or whether Mitt Romney’s crushing sense of inevitability—his greatest asset all along—becomes a crushing reality of inevitability.
There are hints of movement, largely in Newt Gingrich’s direction. He had characteristically strong rhetorical moments in the most recent debate, and the enormity of the South Carolina crowd’s response is still echoing in the air. Sarah Palin came as close to an endorsement as she has so far by indicating she thought Gingrich was the one to vote for if South Carolinians actually want the contest to continue beyond their state. Her endorsement is hardly a game-changer but Newt needs any sense of momentum he can gather.
Governor Rick Perry is the candidate I endorsed, some weeks ago, based on the substance of his record. I stand by my own reasoning on that, but there’s nothing to indicate that he is any closer to making the sale with anything resembling a plurality of voters. It’s clear enough that Republicans just aren’t going to vote for an inarticulate candidate this time around, regardless of record. If Rick Perry wanted to end his campaign with a flourish and contribute to the cause of conservatism, I personally think that he could do no better at this stage than to drop out (in advance of Saturday’s vote) and endorse Gingrich.
Rick Santorum isn’t dropping out now, and probably not even after what could be a poor showing in South Carolina. Despite the endorsement he received from leading social conservatives, he is far from making his sale with me. For reasons covered in the past, I don’t think he’s particularly likeable or electable in presidential terms. Of-course, South Carolinians still have the power to alter his fate.
However, it seems to be down to this: it will be Mitt Romney, or Newt Gingrich. Gingrich is the last candidate standing with a little bit of energy rising behind him to possibly overcome the monotonous momentum of Mitt. Of-course, if Mitt wins South Carolina and Newt, Rick Perry and Rick Santorum drop out (or at whatever point all of those three drop out) there would still be theater in the Republican race because Ron Paul will not drop out, and could give Romney a run for his money in later states.
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Well, I find I’ve blathered more than I intended to here. It may be therapeutic, but, as already said, it’s also rather pointless. It’s up to South Carolina on Saturday. The arguments need to be made to South Carolinians, by the candidates, in these last few days. In the midst of all the craziness and crassness of this election season, may some kind of wisdom prevail.
