Republican presidential debate in Orlando (Fox News and Google)
TweetI left off after the last GOP debate idly wondering if any of these events would change the momentum of the primary contest. Last night’s debate in Orlando may well have done just that. It was a bad debate for Rick Perry, on multiple levels, and quite possibly so bad that Mitt Romney will regain his frontrunner status in the polls.
Also in that last post I said that “how [Rick Perry] deals with this period of being attacked by fellow Republicans will say a lot about his make-up.” It didn’t say great things last night, although this debate will hardly be the last word.
Mitt Romney by contrast delivered his best performance of the debates so far. He was smooth, demonstrated that he thinks well on his feet, and deftly handled criticisms and difficult questions. Yet, handling questions deftly in a debate doesn’t make issues of substance go away. In an election cycle where Republicans have even more reason than usual to want to nominate a true conservative, Romney remains a strange kind of cipher. The only thing one can be totally sure about Mitt is that he really wants to be president. However, were he elected president, and then proceeded to sell out every conservative principle imaginable, could anyone legitimately claim to be surprised? On the other hand he might not do that. But who really knows?
When Perry entered the race, he came across as confident, sure of his beliefs, and able to shoot from the hip and seemingly hit the target every time. Last night’s Perry was about as far from that as he could get. For one, of-course, there is a continuing unseemly piling-on going on by his rivals, and happily fueled by the media. It’s hard to look good when you’re always playing defense. But for another, he was visibly trying to think too much during his answers. He clearly had a plan to go after Romney on specific issues, but he was impatient to get those jabs in and so forced them at inappropriate moments and missed the mark. If I were him, I would throw out last night’s playbook and switch to an overwhelmingly positive approach. He needs to focus on his own vision, work on more specifics, and save the bashing for the current president. If a golden and irresistible opportunity to puncture Romney comes along, then take it, but if it doesn’t come then don’t force it.
I give this advice for free, only because I like a guy who loves dogs as much Perry does.
Also, on the HPV vaccine issue, there is his way of finishing every answer on that by looking at the audience and asserting, “I will always err on the side of life!” It doesn’t work. It sounds like a threat. The HPV vaccine is not a “life” issue like abortion; it’s a public health issue. What next — will he move to ban trans-fats, smoking and salt like a Michael Bloomberg, claiming to be “on the side of life”? I don’t think so for a minute; it’s a rhetorical error he’s making, but if he persists in this it raises a huge question about his judgment and smarts. The vaccine issue is defensible on the facts, and he should just offer his low-key explanation on it when attacked and move on. The attackers are overdoing it and he should let them do so. His mishandling of this is probably the most worrisome omen.
On immigration, he’s simply right to stick to his guns. States should have the right to find their own ways of dealing with the problem that decades of poor border security has put in their lap. The law in question in Texas was overwhelmingly supported by the legislature, and in the end merely allows all residents of Texas to be treated as residents of Texas when paying college tuition. The demagoguery by Santorum, Bachmann et al on this is, again, unseemly. But it just may work, and this issue could be Perry’s undoing. Better to be undone being correct than otherwise.
Meanwhile, Herman Cain and Newt Gingrich merely continue to improve their standing by cutting through the nonsense in their answers and sticking to a positive approach. Both now have a genuine shot as a “third way” candidate, if they hang in and continue to impress.
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Former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson was an interesting if nervy addition, who obviously had the line of the night with all the “shovel-ready jobs” his neighbor’s dogs provide, versus those Obama has contributed. He is said to have stolen it from Rush Limbaugh, but he found the right moment to use it.
I don’t see that any other candidates materially changed their standing based on what happened last night.
The next scheduled debate is October 11th at 8 p.m. Eastern Time, although it’s not completely clear if all candidates will be taking part.
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Meanwhile, Sarah Palin continues to give commentary from the sidelines on the debate performance of others, while remaining coy about whether she will enter the race. I have a big place in my heart for Sarah, but this is turning into a serious negative for her. If Romney is the one who clearly has the most fire in the belly (which is a plus for him) what does Palin’s indecisiveness communicate? The toughest thing for her to deal with in her record is her resignation as Governor of Alaska halfway through her term. This apparent unwillingness to commit to running for president feeds into a possible portrait of her as an unreliable warrior. It may already be too late, but if she really plans to run she can ill afford very much more of this.
