Although the major media outlets seem to be interested only in the degree to which other candidates did or didn’t go after Mitt Romney in last night’s Republican presidential debate in New Hampshire, I think that most fence-sitting Republican voters were more interested in just getting the measure of these candidates. To that extent, I think that former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty clearly did himself the most good. Most interested Republicans already know that he has a good resumé, as a two-term governor in a state that has lately leaned liberal who succeeded in both espousing and enacting genuinely conservative policies. The questions in the minds of many viewers about him would have been: How does he come across in a debate? How well does he communicate conservative ideas? How well does he handle foreign policy issues? I think his performance would have answered these questions in a quite resoundingly positive way. Therefore—putting aside these too-early polls which are basically meaningless—I think Pawlenty now becomes the real front-runner, among the currently declared candidates.

All the candidates acquitted themselves reasonably well, but no other candidate in his or her performance succeeded in putting to rest whatever reservations voters might have had about him or her. Santorum still seems to lack credible stature; Cain did not put to rest doubts about his experience; Gingrich demonstrated he’s still a good ideas-man but remains unconvincing as a candidate for president; Ron Paul is still Ron Paul. Mitt Romney may be the only one who did himself harm, however; at least in my view. He seemed smug, too convinced of his front-runner status—almost paternalistic towards the other candidates. Pawlenty was the one who likely broke down the reservations that came attached to his candidacy: “too plain, too boring, too mild.” He was instead rather clear, convincing and forceful, but generally without overdoing it either.

It’s necessary to keep repeating that it’s early, and there are formidable candidates waiting in the wings. Still, as time goes on, these kinds of events—and the impressions created with those voters who are paying attention—begin to matter more and more.

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Addendum: 6/17/2011 Clearly my pro-Pawlenty take on this debate is against the conventional wisdom—to say the least. Nevertheless, I’m sticking to it! I’m not endorsing Pawlenty by any means; there’s plenty of time for candidates to prove themselves. However, I think as the race shakes out, the depth of his record and experience as a two-term governor of Minnesota, as compared to a number of other candidates, will become a bigger factor. I think based on this debate performance he can ultimately answer the questions about personality or charisma, and I think he will be a front-runner. We’ll see.

Possibly related posts:

• The South Carolina Republican debate on CNN last night (and the “grandeur” of Gingrich)
• Jacksonville CNN Republican debate

From section: 2012 CAMPAIGN, Commentary, Politics / 4 Comments »