Notes on Donald Trump and the emerging GOP field for 2012
TweetDonald Trump has been a blast; a genuine laugh-riot. And hopefully that’s all he’ll prove to have been when the history of the 2012 election season is written. Just to show that I’m not merely jumping on any recent anti-Trump bandwagon, I will quote myself from back in February of this year, when The Donald first made his foray into presidential politics at the CPAC event:
Does anyone really believe that he is doing this for any reason other than to get some more attention? He looks in the mirror and asks himself, “Why isn’t everyone gazing upon me so adoringly?” He believes in and cares about conservative principles to about the same extent as a stripper believes in the ideology of naturism. In both cases it’s about wearing what’s convenient.
Well said, and a cursory delving into Trump’s record, or even any serious attempt to divine cohesion in the kinds of pronouncements on policy which he’s been making in the last couple of months would demonstrate the truth of it. It’s why Trump doesn’t ultimately worry me, when it comes to the GOP nomination. Forget the current poll numbers, which are crazily skewed towards name recognition (an area in which Trump undoubtedly excels). In the end, Trump has zero chance of winning the Republican nomination, should he actually compete for it. Trump’s candidacy only becomes an issue should he ultimately run as an independent in the general election. Then, should he get any significant share of the vote, he could be a spoiler, and the benefit would obviously go to the incumbent Obama. Will he run as an independent? I very much doubt it, but who knows what ego lurks in the hearts of men? Trump’s is plain enough to see, but he’s also fond of money, first and foremost, and I can’t see him spending huge sums of it on his own quixotic campaign. If people will actually give him money to run — a notion which he’s already raised — then, well, maybe. And this is where the GOP needs to fear that money might be funneled to a Trump candidacy (or some other fake) in order to effect the re-election of Barack Obama.
Obama might well seek to turn to such tricks, as he is in the weakest position of any incumbent since Jimmy Carter. Forget his genealogy and his school records: he has a record right now of nearly two and half years as president that is filled with millstones that should justifiably destroy him. Presidential elections are won by independent, “swing” voters, albeit assisted by a charged-up base. The independents don’t care about Obama’s past, but only his presidency, which has been disastrous to date and shows no sign of recovery. Also, Obama, with his tax and spend budget proposal and his fiercely partisan rhetoric, has seemingly opted to run as himself this time; this is as opposed to running as a post-partisan paragon of pragmatism, by which subterfuge he won the election last time. He couldn’t make things much easier for a strong Republican candidate in 2012.
The problem with the current, emerging Republican field is that there is a terrible dichotomy in the talent pool. The smoother, more accomplished potential candidates (Daniels, Romney, Pawlenty, even Gingrich) don’t have a connection to any real base that can be charged up, whether social conservative or Tea Party. The people who might connect most strongly with the base (Palin and one or two others if they assert themselves) are not particularly smooth and might well turn off independents. In the end, however, I would favor plumping for someone who fires up the base and then work to bring the independents in during the general election. That is a tried and true way of winning elections — and it also has the advantage of favoring a real conservative, who will govern as real conservative. Obama has been the most ideologically left wing president in history, and to reverse course will require someone who will accept nothing less than doing just that.
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Dissatisfied with the current prospects, many have their eye out for a dark horse. One getting some attention recently is Rep. Thaddeus McCotter (R-MI), who I once interviewed on an altogether different subject. He’s an interesting potential candidate, but I don’t know if this talk is for real or for fun. I do know that I’m all in favor of dark horses right now. This presidential nominating process needs to be a real competition, where the best man or woman wins. The current scene presents an ideal opportunity for an articulate, true-blue conservative, who is not a prisoner of the dichotomy described earlier. It seems to me that anyone who might be that dark horse had best begin asserting and defining him or her self in a significant way.
