Iowa has spoken (blandly but effectively)
So, Rick Perry rode yesterday’s endorsement in this space to 10.3% of the vote and a fifth place finish in the Iowa caucuses, behind Newt Gingrich with 13.3%. As we know, Mitt Romney won over Rick Santorum by a few votes at 24.6% versus 24.5%, and Ron Paul was third with 21.4%.
It’s odd, really, that Mitt Romney, who neglected Iowa voters to a fairly insulting extent until recently, did so well. It’s not so odd that Rick Santorum did well: he worked his butt off in Iowa at the doorbell level, he has mega-social-conservative credibility and he peaked at precisely the right moment. Ron Paul has to be disappointed with a third place finish. It strands him as a curiosity rather than a contender.
Rick Perry is so delighted with his fifth place finish that he has returned to Texas to “reassess” his campaign. Michele Bachmann, who was last, is clearly about to drop out.
Although this is merely the first state to vote, it’s worth remembering that it can get late pretty early in this game. The clearest path to the nomination for Mitt Romney is for Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul and Rick Perry to continue splitting the non-Romney voters. It seems Perry is about to exit, which would be big of him. If he had come in a surprise third, he certainly could have made the case that he was the most credible non-Mitt over the long haul. Coming in where he did, however, it’s easy for his opponents to argue that he’s simply failing to make the sale to voters in this election cycle—for whatever reason—and that he is therefore not the horse to ride to the finish line.
Can Romney still win with just Gingrich, Santorum and Paul splitting the truer-bluer-conservative vote? Yes, of-course. But none of those are going to give up ahead of South Carolina, and Ron Paul will probably never get out (although Paul’s voters are likely of least consequence). I made the case yesterday as to why I don’t believe Santorum is the one the GOP should go with this year.
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Sarah Palin in an interview yesterday referenced the notion of candidates dropping out and urging their supporters to coalesce around one candidate; the idea clearly is to coalesce around a candidate not named Romney. There needs to be real pressure on the candidates in the coming few weeks to coldly assess their chances and make this kind of call. Most will not do it without being pushed. But by who?
Only further events will change the current equation in this election, which is obviously at this moment strongly in Mitt Romney’s favor. Saturday’s debate in New Hampshire looms large. It’s a chance for Gingrich to reassert himself, and it’s a chance for voters generally to take a closer look at Rick Santorum.
