How Mitt Romney will lose to Barack Obama
Those in the Republican establishment who believe that Mitt Romney is the most electable (in November 2012) candidate currently running for the GOP presidential nomination ought to consider the following scenario extremely carefully and seriously: Ron Paul, after losing the GOP nomination, decides to run as a third party candidate. Ron Paul has all the things necessary to do so: a committed base of supporters across the country, a decent amount of money and the ability to raise more, and a good beginning at national name and face recognition (thanks to what he’s stirred up during the GOP contest). Plus, you can be sure that whatever he lacks in general name recognition will be amply supplied to him by those many in the media establishment eager to help Obama get reelected in whatever way possible.
With the utterly-unreliable-on-principle Mitt Romney as the GOP nominee, it is simply beyond question that many disgusted Tea Partiers and other outraged conservatives would vote for Ron Paul. I am very far from being a Ron Paulian myself, but even I would seriously consider voting for him in protest at the Republican party—for the second consecutive election—nominating someone who is not a genuine and reliable conservative. (And I’m a very mild-mannered and pragmatic individual, as my parole officer will happily attest.) I easily see Ron Paul getting votes in the 15% to 20% range in such a circumstance. The feeling among many erstwhile Republicans will be that it is better to tear the thing down and rebuild it then to have to tolerate slow death with such a false standard-bearer as Romney. If the GOP wins the Senate and keeps the House—both of which they ought to be able to do—a second Obama term will be a different animal to the first.
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But it’s a pretty horrific thing to contemplate all the same. Indeed, it must not happen. Republicans can’t control what Ron Paul does, but Republicans can avoid nominating Mitt Romney and thus providing Ron Paul, as an independent candidate, such a huge empty niche to fill. Nominate a strong conservative (albeit an imperfect one) and no one in his or her right mind will cast a protest vote for Ron Paul that reelects Barack Obama.
