The CNBC debate and Rick Perry’s big “oops”
I didn’t see the entire debate last night. I don’t receive CNBC on my boob-tube, and they chose not to stream it on their website. So I had to resort to a little trick my grandfather taught me involving a shortwave radio, a ball of twine and a cereal box, but it faded in and out.
However, I did see the moment that is generating all the attention this morning. That is, when Rick Perry announced he would shut down three departments of the federal government, but could only come up with two: Commerce and Education. (In answering a later question he did remember that the third one was the Energy Department, and received a big if heavily ironic cheer from the crowd). It was a classic brain-freeze moment, and I guess it was a little like watching an ice skater you’re egging on go totally splat on the rink. It happens to all of us, but all of us are not running for president. It’s likely the result of over-preparation, over-coaching, and having too much of one’s mind on style and tactics rather than the substance of what one is saying. Could it be the end of Perry’s campaign? Sure. It will hurt his fundraising: people who were putting their hands in their pockets will withdraw them, thinking, “This guy isn’t going to make it.” Could he recover? Sure. How? Just by keeping on. The narrative will change, given time and more events. Of-course, it needs to change in his favor.
The big problem for him now is that everyone will be waiting for this to happen again. Every pause and stumble will have people wondering: “Has he lost it again?” Worse, he will wonder himself, and that could well lead him right back into the same kind of brain-freeze. That kind of negative thought pattern is very powerful and very hard to overcome. It’s like a baseball player who starts making throwing errors, and then can’t throw straight anymore because the thought of making an error takes over what had previously been an act he could execute without thinking. Perry is good at fielding questions on the campaign trail, and he has been good in interviews. On the debate stage he appears to be nearly crippled by thinking too much. It’s true that being a good debater is not the be-all-end-all of winning the presidency, and even less is it the key to being a good president, but there are degrees. Perry’s in a very tough place on this issue now and it will be no small miracle if he can manage to turn it around.
One person who never seems to take his mind off the substance of what he’s saying is Newt Gingrich, and that’s why he’s been the best debater. He’s earned his turn in the spotlight, and that’s exactly what’s coming. He hasn’t spent his whole life on a debate stage, and some of his other activities are going to be getting some scrutiny. Yesterday he remarked on his making of a television commercial with Nancy Pelosi advocating action on “climate-change.” He said, “That’s probably the dumbest single thing I’ve done in recent years.” I question the use of the word “probably” there. One must hope that he hasn’t done so very many things that are comparably dumb in recent years.
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Newt is a visionary-kind of politician. Do visionaries make good chief executives? Sometimes they do, when their moment is right, but if the circumstances are wrong they can make a major mess out of things. The suspicion with Newt is that he’s so into a vision of achieving grand, historic and bi-partisan things that he would sell out certain conservative principles in order to do so. His excellent debate performances have soothed many fears, but thriving at the next level, with bigger scrutiny, will present some difficulties for him.
Not everything gets sorted out on a debate stage. For Rick Perry, that is his only source of hope this morning. For Newt Gingrich, it’s going to be the next challenge.
